Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Transform Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Commentators Warn

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."